M. P. S. Nair, Center for Green Technology and Management, Cochin, Kerala, India

 

At COP26 in Glasgow, Scotland, UK, Indian prime minister Narendra Modi announced that India plans to achieve net-zero emissions targets by 2070. India’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) announced 2050 as a net-zero target; however, due to the size, population and social fabric of the country, an additional 20 yr is likely necessary to achieve net-zero emissions targets. 

Modi announced that India has advanced its commitments ahead of many nations in respect to definitive actions undertaken to mitigate climate change. The success achieved in creating more than 100 GW of renewable energy capacity—especially in solar power generation—has shown India’s capability and its strategy and action plan for the implementation of the ambitious emissions reduction targets proposed by the IPCC. 

Green growth. The Indian predicament may be viewed in the context of its national economic development goals. The country has a population of 1.35 B people, which nearly 65% are in the working age group of 14–65. India is also forecast to become a $5-T economy in 4 yr–5 yr. Therefore, the timeframe in achieving emissions reduction targets should take into consideration the growth perspective of populous countries (e.g., India and China), which will inevitably contribute to increased emissions. 

Current energy programs underway in India (e.g., electricity for all and gas for every household for cooking)—if scaled up in proportion to population—add more carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. This is inevitable and challenging for a government that has an agenda of elevating the lower strata ring of society to higher social classes. Apart from this, investments in carbon-intensive projects that have begun operations or are under development must be factored into the challenge of reducing carbon emissions and increasing economic growth. A balance must be struck by decarbonizing future growth programs through the adoption of green technologies and transforming existing operations towards a carbon reduction program. How quickly companies can acquire or develop these technologies will determine the timeframe and growth trajectory towards decarbonization. Sectors with high carbon and energy intensities that must adopt greener technologies to limit emissions are cement, iron and steel, aluminum, fertilizers, oil and gas, and power generation. 

Renewable power development should be first since it is this power that will go into the electrolysis of water to produce H₂ and ammonia, which will be used for transportation and for heating and cooling applications. Self-sufficiency in green power generation is attributed to massive technological innovation in batteries for a higher kilovolt ampere (kVA)/kg, solar panels for higher photovoltaic (PV) conversion efficiency, new generation electrolyzers for H₂ production, higher motor efficiency and reduced energy transmission loss. This will require additional capital spending, which will need help from private and cooperative sectors. Also, digitization, Internet of Things, information technology-enabled services, augmented reality and artificial intelligence will be beneficial in promoting innovations to reduce emissions. 

Perspective plan. All 27 European Union (EU) member states committed to converting the EU into the first climate-neutral continent by 2050. To achieve this goal, they pledged to reduce emissions by at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. With fossil fuel energy being replaced by renewables, it is natural that many jobs across various sectors will disappear; therefore, government intervention will be required to retrain workers. India has conceived a roadmap for complete energy independence by 2047, with the interim targets of 175 GW renewable energy generation by 2023 and 450 GW by 2030. Since October 2021, India’s installed renewable energy capacity is more than 100 GW, with 50 GW being solar power. 

According to the International Energy Agency’s Global Hydrogen Review 2021, India produces 7 MMtpy of gray H₂. Gray H₂ is produced from natural gas, refinery offgas and coal and used in refineries, ammonia, methanol, other chemicals and steel production through the direct reduced iron process. This is also supplemented by an additional 82,000 tpy of H₂ produced from chloralkali plants, which is used for chemical synthesis and as fuel. H2 demand is forecast to increase to 11 MMtpy by 2030.Major industry operators—Adani, ArcelorMittal, Indian Oil Corp., NTPC Ltd., Reliance Industries and the Solar Energy Corp. of India—announced capital-intensive plans to develop low-carbon H₂ production. 

In 2021, India launched the National Hydrogen Mission with the intent to explore policy actions to support the use of H₂ as an energy vector and develop a global H₂ manufacturing hub and fuel cell technology hardware production center. The government has already mandated quotas for using renewable H₂ in refining and ammonia production. According to the proposal, starting in 2023, 10% of refineries’ H₂ demand must come from renewable H₂, increasing to 25% in the following 5 yr. Fertilizer producers must meet 5% of H₂ demand with renewable H₂ in 2023, increasing to 20% in the future. This proposal is expected to be extended into the steel industry, as well. 

The deployment of H₂ in the many different sectors of India will occur on different timeframes and for different reasons. Industry will take the lead in the steel, ammonia, refining and methanol sectors followed by battery-operated electrical vehicles. In power, H₂ could be a cost-effective way of providing inter-seasonal storage in a high-variable renewable electricity system from 2040. 

Wherever possible, the direct use of renewable power should be preferred. H₂ and its conversion to ammonia should be a second option for energy storage, preferably for long distance hauling, aircrafts and marine vessels. The development of industrial conglomerates would attract technical and commercial viability of H₂ use for manufacturing applications. 

Renewed drive for decarbonization. Regarding technological advances in several industrial sectors, the approach taken by the Indian government towards fostering a H₂ economy for the country has been quick and timely. Modi has encouraged the importance of aligning with ongoing technological developments in the H₂ sector as a sustainable alternative to fossil energy and the need to build inhouse expertise through active participation in research and innovation in this area. The India government also plans to support these projects via funding (e.g., viability gap funding). The government should set targets for electrolyzer deployments by 2030 and incentivize domestic manufacturing of electrolyzers under the government’s “Make in India” program. This would provide substantial business opportunities for future development. 

How quickly global carbon neutrality can be attained beyond 2050 will depend on the commitments of major emitters such as China, India and the U.S. The quicker these countries succeed in decarbonizing their activities, the faster that global carbon neutrality will be achieved. In the interim, the author expects substantial progress among the developed countries towards this goal by 2050. 

After 2050, China, India and the U.S. will accelerate the progress towards decarbonization, and the attainment of global neutrality will be hastened. As things stand currently, this is expected to happen around 2060–2070.H₂T

MP Sukumaran Nair is the Director of the Center for Green Technology and Management and the President of the Thrikkakara Municipal Co-operative Hospital Society in Cochin, Kerala, India. Prior to this position, Dr. Nair has held various positions for the government of Kerala, including Chairman of the Public Sector Restructuring and Audit Board, and Chairman and Managing Director of Travancore Titanium Products Ltd. He has earned a BS degree in chemistry and AMIE chemical engineering, a postgraduate degree in ecology and environment, an MBA and a PhD in environmental management.

Opening photo: India has ambitious plans to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070. The country has targeted 450 GW of renewable energy by 2030.