The early hype around green hydrogen included predictions that it could help to redraw the global energy map by transforming renewables-rich countries into major exporters of molecules.

Those expectations have now been scaled back in line with global market projections. Expectations that green hydrogen could meet 10–15% of global energy demand by 2050 look increasingly fanciful given the industry’s challenges in scaling up and the continued reluctance of potential consumers.

However, green hydrogen still offers significant potential for new green molecule exporters, not least in Africa.

The IEA has previously highlighted Africa’s potential to be a green hydrogen powerhouse, able to undercut most other regions on cost and perfectly placed to supply huge volumes to key demand centres in Europe and elsewhere.

However, Africa’s window of opportunity in green hydrogen may be narrowing. The IEA has lowered its expectations for the continent’s supply potential through 2030. And the Energy Industries Council (EIC), a trade association for the global energy supply chain, kicked off 2026 with a harsh warning over the pace of development.

“Hydrogen realities are hitting Africa’s export push, with a lack of firm offtake agreements, insufficient pipeline infrastructure and a nascent local supply chain raising doubts over how quickly projects can move from plans to final investment decisions,” the EIC said in a report published in mid-January.

Africa’s hydrogen push has leaned too heavily on multi-gigawatt projects that lack secured offtake and vital infrastructure. Supply chain capacity is another weak point. No electrolyser manufacturers are operating in Africa today, meaning early projects will rely heavily on imported equipment. Egypt, arguably the continent’s frontrunner in green hydrogen, stands out for setting a 20% local content requirement tied to incentives and limiting the share of foreign labour on projects, the EIC said.

Others have noted that the lack of local electrolyser manufacturers has caught the attention of Chinese companies, which are increasingly looking to supply Africa-based projects with technology. Chinese firms also investing more broadly in hydrogen projects as China-Africa trading ties are strengthened. That will help to unlock Africa’s potential.

However, African governments still need to do more to attract investment, according to the EIC. “Governments need to stick to the basics investors need,” said Rebecca Groundwater, the EIC’s global head of external affairs.

“Set clear rules, keep policy stable, speed up permits and get the basics in place on grid and water. Use finance tools that share risk and bring in development lenders where needed while costs are still high. And match project timing to what export buyers can take. Without that, a lot of this will not go beyond concept.”

Egypt and beyond

Africa also has an issue with project concentration. Egypt, Morocco and South Africa account for about 80% of Africa’s proposed hydrogen capital spending. Egypt alone represents close to half of the continent’s total, with $88.5b of planned investment, backed by a national low-carbon hydrogen strategy, said the EIC.

Hydrogen Economist has also highlighted the potential of Mauritania, another hotspot for project developers, which also has ambitions to build a local green steel industry fuelled by green hydrogen.

Egypt delivered a boost to African green hydrogen in January, when one of its flagship projects starting partial production, according to the government.  The 100MW green hydrogen and ammonia plant, led by Norway’s Scatec in the Suez Canal Economic Zone is aimed at European markets. It is relatively small compared with many of the nearly two-dozen projects in Egypt outlined in memorandums of understanding over the past five years. However, its progress is seen as a bellwether for the wider sector as it was one of the first projects to be announced, in late 2021.

---

Author: Stuart Penson