The IDTechEx research report, “Electric and Fuel Cell Trucks 2023–2043” explores the future of the rapidly developing zero-emissions truck market, covering battery electric, plug-in hybrid, and H₂ fuel cell trucks. The report we discusses the technical and economic aspects of zero-emissions truck deployment and presents forecasts for medium- and heavy-duty zero-emissions truck deployment out to 2043, with focus on key markets in Europe, the U.S. and China.

Despite the medium- and heavy-duty truck fleet representing less than 10% of the global on-road vehicle stock, large diesel truck engines and high average annual mileage mean that the truck sector contributes around 40% of the global transport sector's greenhouse gas emissions. This equates to about 5.1% of all global fossil fuel derived CO₂ emissions. It is this disproportionate contribution to emissions which makes trucks a target for governments. If the global community is going to meet its targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit the impact of climate change, then a rapid decarbonization of the truck sector must be a priority. Consequently, the days of the fossil fuel-powered combustion engine truck are numbered.

Governments around the world, recognizing the potentially catastrophic repercussions of unfettered climate change and witnessing the detrimental impact on human health from vehicle exhaust pollutant emissions in urban environments, are taking decisive action, tightening exhaust emissions regulation and plotting timelines to net-zero emissions. This will, in the coming few decades, drive vehicle manufacturers to zero on-road exhaust emissions powertrain solutions. OEMs and suppliers are increasingly committing to this transition.

Significant truck electrification progress. According to the report, the past 18 mos have seen substantial progress in truck electrification. The previous version of this IDTechEx report, “Electric Medium and Heavy-duty Trucks 2021–2041” presented primarily prototype vehicles or zero-emissions trucks in small series production; today, almost all OEMs either have a battery electric model in series production or are committed to starting production within the next year. Supply chains are maturing, and major Tier 1 suppliers are putting substantial resources into parts electrification and shifting focus away from traditional combustion engine powertrains.

Key to deployment of battery electric trucks is understanding the daily duty cycle energy demand. The high cost of battery packs means that optimization that minimizes the size of the installed battery while still delivering a full day's operation is likely to be the most cost-effective solution. Many OEMs are offering consultancy services, working with customers to analyze the daily energy demanded by their operations, to then tailor the vehicle and charging infrastructure to that requirement. Modular battery solutions and a choice of electric motor sizes will help customers acquire the correct vehicle for their application. Working with customers is key to successful BEV truck deployment for these early generation vehicles.

Fuel cell trucks can provide long-haul range but face deployment challenges. While the market for battery electric vehicles is beginning to take off, the energy density and specific energy of current lithium-ion battery technologies can mean that the range of battery electric trucks is restricted by both the maximum weight of batteries that can be carried by a truck and the available space for batteries within that vehicle. Fuel cell technologies offer truck OEMs an avenue to greater range, while still delivering the crucial reduction in on-road exhaust emissions. Despite the technology’s promise, reducing system cost and rolling out sufficient H₂ refueling infrastructure to make driving an FCEV workable will be a challenge. Also essential will be the availability of cheap low-carbon green H₂, which analysis in the new IDTechEx report highlights will be vital to FCEVs delivering the environmental credentials on which they are being sold.

Heavy-duty charging/refueling infrastructure needed. The installation of electric charging/H₂ refueling infrastructure is critical to the deployment of zero-emissions trucks. Part of any fleet transition to electric trucks will involve the installation of sufficient charging infrastructure to enable high utilization of vehicles. For short urban duty cycles that do not deplete an electric truck's battery over a day's operation, low-power AC depot charging should be enough for most vehicles to recharge the battery overnight. However, some long-haul truck applications entail a daily mileage far in excess of the range that can be delivered by a practical level of installed battery capacity. In these instances, DC fast chargers specifically designed to cater for heavy-duty vehicles will need to be installed both on highways and at points of regular loading/unloading to add considerable energy in less than one hour. The alternative is H₂ fuel cell trucks, which will require a network of H₂ refueling stations, along with the development of H₂ generation and transport infrastructure.