Developers in the U.S. have plans to expand H₂ production using technologies that make use of electricity, an early sign that H₂ production could move away from its current reliance on hydrocarbon feedstocks in the coming years.

Planned electrolyzer installations that use electricity to produce H₂ from water, if built, would expand capacity in the U.S. from 116 megawatts (MW) of current capacity to 4,524 MW, according to information collected by the U.S. Department of Energy’s H₂ Program Record. If all the planned projects are implemented, U.S. production of H₂ through electrolysis could total about 720,000 metric tpy compared with the current 10 MMt of H₂ currently produced from fossil fuels and as a byproduct from other industrial sources. Electrolyzers that meet a threshold for low carbon intensity could qualify for a production tax credit if developers begin construction by 2033.

H₂ is a critical input for petroleum refining and fertilizer production, and it can also be used as a storable fuel for electric power generation to be used in H₂ gas turbines or blended with natural gas for use in traditional gas turbines. It is the simplest element found naturally on earth and is traditionally separated out of hydrocarbons, such as natural gas and coal, through a process known as steam methane reforming (SMR). The 10 MMtpy of H₂ produced in the U.S. is almost completely supplied by SMRs or produced as byproduct H₂ obtained from a chemical plant or other facility where H₂ is not the main product. Using our Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey 2018—the most recent year for which we have data—and our Annual Refinery Capacity Report, we estimate current U.S. SMR capacity totals 7.6 MMtpy of H₂.

We are currently developing a new H₂ supply model and adjusting consumption models to better incorporate H₂ projections in our Annual Energy Outlook for 2025. We will host a working group discussion with stakeholders on June 12, 2024.

Electrolyzers vs. SMR. Electrolyzers produce H₂ through electrolysis, a process that separates H₂ from water using an electrical current, with oxygen as the only byproduct. Because SMRs use hydrocarbons as feedstock, their byproducts include carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide (CO₂), which must be captured and sequestered to achieve net-zero emissions. H₂ produced by electrolyzers is considered carbon-neutral if the electricity consumed is generated from renewable resources.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), two types of electrolyzer technologies are currently commercially deployed, both of which require further improvements to stay competitive: proton exchange membrane (PEM) and alkaline. These technologies vary by construction cost, start-up times, and materials used to convert electricity to H₂. No matter the materials used, electrolyzers can leverage electricity generated from renewable resources.

Although several electrolyzer projects are planned in the U.S., traditional SMR technology produces most of the H₂ commercially consumed in the U.S. today.

The SMR process applies high-temperature steam to methane and a catalyst to produce H₂, carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide. Industrial facilities and petroleum refineries primarily use natural gas as the source of methane for H₂ production. SMR units can be fitted with carbon capture and storage (CCS) capabilities to reduce the carbon footprint of H₂ production by storing CO₂ underground. This technology is not new; since 2013, the Coffeyville Resources Nitrogen Fertilizers plant in Oklahoma has been capturing CO₂ created by H₂ production and delivering it for enhanced oil recovery.