H₂ transport infrastructure is developing at half the pace of other clean technologies, creating a bottleneck that could put billions in clean energy investment at risk, new research from Heriot-Watt University shows.

A recent study from Edinburgh Business School at Heriot-Watt University found that while H₂ production, storage and fuel cell technologies are advancing rapidly, H₂ distribution infrastructure is developing at half speed, creating a critical bottleneck that could put billions in clean energy at risk.

The findings, published in the journal Sustainable Futures, are an important milestone in recognizing that, while other H₂ technologies improve and costs fall, distribution expenses could take up a large share of H₂ system budgets, significantly limiting overall efficiency and growth of the H₂ sector.

The research team analyzed 777,000 patents and 1.3 million citations spanning 182 years of H₂ technology development, revealing clear differences in progress across the system.

Dr David Dekker, Research Fellow at Edinburgh Business School, Heriot-Watt University, and lead author of the study, said, “Distribution will become the dominant cost in any H₂ system.

"Even as we get better at producing and using H₂, getting it where it is needed stays expensive.

“The problem is structural. Distribution requires massive pipeline networks and liquefaction plants that need billions in capital investment.

"Safety regulations and permitting processes are complex, so progress is slow.

“Most distribution infrastructure sits with a handful of major companies. They tend to share less knowledge than innovators in other H₂ fields.

"In capital-intensive sectors where competitive advantage matters, companies are far less likely to publish innovations openly. This slows progress across the entire sector.”

Professor Dimitris Christopoulos, Director of Research at Edinburgh Business School and Heriot-Watt University’s School of Social Sciences, who co-authored the findings, said, “We cannot have a H₂ economy without the infrastructure to move it around. Right now, that is the fundamental missing piece.

“The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, requires rapid scaling of clean energy technologies, but infrastructure bottlenecks could undermine major investment programs.

"The question now is whether policymakers and industry will act before distribution costs make H₂ uncompetitive.”

The findings reveal where the H₂ system is most vulnerable, showing that the pipes, terminals and liquefaction plants needed to move H₂ safely and affordably are lagging behind. This matters because distribution links the entire H₂ system together. Without it, production remains concentrated near manufacturing sites, meaning the wider economy cannot make use of H₂ and the climate benefits never materialize.

Professor Mercedes Maroto-Valer, who leads the UK Industrial Decarbonization Research and Innovation Centre (IDRIC), said, “As the BBC recently reported on Germany’s green H₂ industry, H₂ faces a classic chicken and egg problem.

"Industry will not commit at scale without pipelines, terminals and reliable delivery, but those networks will not be built at scale without firm industrial demand.

"What this new Heriot-Watt research adds is hard evidence that distribution innovation moves much more slowly than the rest of the H₂ system.

"Without targeted action to de-risk infrastructure, distribution costs and uncertainty will continue to hold the market back.”

Targeted policies, incentives for greater knowledge sharing, the creation of open technical standards and publicly backed demonstration projects would all reduce risk for industry and speed up the development of viable distribution solutions.

This work was supported by UKRI ISCF Industrial Challenge through the UK Industrial Decarbonization Research and Innovation Centre (IDRIC).